Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 13.723994 15.685923 17.814264 20.292762 23.097877 26.172321 29.795602
2024-10-06 10.810521 13.429053 16.497047 20.349648 25.050825 30.593431 37.616443
2024-10-13 9.587781 12.552051 16.197167 20.995236 27.130154 34.696130 44.718965
2024-10-20 8.288367 11.374216 15.336586 20.775862 28.024965 37.327633 50.143048
2024-10-27 6.969392 9.971017 13.975161 19.678420 27.560262 38.031818 52.956872
2024-11-03 6.439499 9.558251 13.860947 20.191423 29.222532 41.589577 59.746042
2024-11-10 5.984725 9.189151 13.748693 20.659230 30.807991 45.093538 66.638058
2024-11-17 5.401682 8.566689 13.204749 20.435682 31.351190 47.121474 71.516260
2024-11-24 4.852180 7.936028 12.583452 20.025660 31.556185 48.629272 75.677391
2024-12-01 4.474332 7.532261 12.262795 20.029675 32.357941 51.033008 81.280319
2024-12-08 4.212664 7.286920 12.161036 20.353200 33.654032 54.235258 88.263040
2024-12-15 3.939540 6.995926 11.958173 20.488897 34.644210 56.999260 94.696020
2024-12-22 3.627994 6.620707 11.600561 20.363644 35.234563 59.218111 100.488577
2024-12-29 3.406623 6.381494 11.449681 20.569390 36.380414 62.394954 108.030328
2025-01-05 3.274404 6.286097 11.531432 21.168670 38.213764 66.785140 117.809898
2025-01-12 3.024987 5.954511 11.172738 20.965634 38.640600 68.831322 123.732104
2025-01-19 2.665467 5.384770 10.342554 19.852708 37.379628 67.903368 124.450388
2025-01-26 2.569903 5.309960 10.407301 20.372130 39.071050 72.184132 134.516001
2025-02-02 2.474268 5.226072 10.446915 20.843187 40.696535 76.428145 144.738485
2025-02-09 2.298727 4.966996 10.133160 20.617994 41.004643 78.311625 150.775069
2025-02-16 2.116330 4.677737 9.738211 20.204399 40.921860 79.463861 155.510485
2025-02-23 1.995735 4.506717 9.563057 20.208477 41.637985 82.125950 163.196485
2025-03-02 1.917931 4.419996 9.550250 20.534743 43.000810 86.070877 173.515582